The race to 270

After months of campaigning and hundreds of millions worth of ads (negative ads to be exact), it will all come down to who will get the most electoral votes—not the popular votes.

Can Governor Romney get 270 electoral votes to take the country back from Obama and away from his “going-nowhere” agenda and policy?

1)     Where we are…

In addition to the safe “red” states that John McCain won in 2008, North Carolina is now a red state as wella recent Gravis poll showing Romney in front by 8%. As a matter of fact, the last North Carolina poll that had Obama in front was early in October.

 

Romney 206 EV - Obama 201 EV

Romney 206 EV – Obama 201 EV

 

With this map showing safe blue states and safe red states, Obama has 201 electoral votes (EV) while Romney has 206 votes.

2)     Swing states

Colorado (CO – 9 EV): Denver was where Obama received his presidential nomination from the Democrats in 2008. Denver was also where troubles began for Obama in his re-election bid in 2012 after the first debate in the city. That first debate showed an aggressive Romney who knew beyond the campaign rhetoric. He presented his plan clear and understandable to voters. Contrast that to Obama who showed up with nothing for his second-term plan except attacks and distortions on Romney’s plan. And the voters noticed. They began to like Romney more. Swing states polls slowly but steadily showed Romney’s gain. Colorado voters have also switched to Romney. Coming from behind, Romney has now tied Obama in recent polls. Will Romney be able to continue this momentum to take this state? Yes.

Romney: 215 EV, Obama 201 EV

Virginia (VA – 13 EV): many voters in Virginia work for the federal government. One would believe that most of them are disgusted with the administration’s handling of the Benghazi situation—the 3 am call that both President Obama and Hillary Clinton did not respond well. They did not attempt to rescue Ambassador Stevens and his 3 other officials. They chose to stand down out of fears. This miss may continue for the change of hearts for VA voters as well as voters in other swing states. Virginia still remains a very close contest. A recent Fox News poll showed Romney in front 47% to 45% for Obama—after trailing Obama by 50% to 43% margin. But the important number to keep in mind is 7% of the voters are still undecided—comparing to 5% in the same poll taken about 5 weeks earlier. Why is this important? The undecided voters at this late in the election usually tend to vote against the incumbent or skip voting. In either way, it works for Romney. It should also be noted that Romney reached 50% in a recent VA poll by Rasmussen Reports to 48% for Obama.

Romney: 228 EV, Obama 201 EV

Florida (FL – 29 EV): most recent polls have Romney leading Obama by from 1%, 2%, 3% or 5%. The Sunshine State News poll (taken 10/22 – 10/24) put Romney at 51% and Obama at 46%. The latest Rasmussen Reports, however, showed a smaller Romney lead—50% to 48%. In this same poll, among those who have not voted in early voting, 92% said they have already made up their minds certain to vote—and Romney won this group 51% to 48%. Again, 8% of those who have not voted have not made up their minds—these are the voters that Romney will continue to go after. In the end, Florida will be red.

Romney: 257 EV, Obama 201 EV

Michigan (MI – 16 EV): this state has no business to be a swing state this late in the election. The latest Baydoun/Foster poll (10/22-10/23) had Romney and Obama tied at 47% after Obama led by 3% two weeks earlier. And 4% are still undecided. One must believe that voters see through the label “Let Detroit go bankrupt” that Obama puts on Romney. If this state turns red, it will mean a landslide victory for Romney. But I believe Obama will be able to get a close win in Michigan.

Romney: 257 EV, Obama 217 EV

Wisconsin (WI – 10 EV): how important was the pick of Paul Ryan as VP by Romney? This is a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008. This is also a state that has not voted for Republican president since 1984—the last Republican president chosen by Wisconsin was Ronald Reagan. Yet, with about 10 days left in the race, a recent Rasmussen poll showed Romney and Obama tied at 49%. Among the 96% who said they are sure to vote this election, Romney leads 51%-47%.  Among the 92% who said they’ve already made up their minds, Romney leads 51%-48%. While the Badgers may not be able to make Rose Bowl in January 2013, the state of Wisconsin will look like a red rose on November 6.

Romney: 267 EV, Obama 217 EV

Pennsylvania (PA – 20 EV): polls showed Obama in front by a comfortable level. I don’t see much a chance for Romney to take this state unless in a landslide scenario.

Romney: 267 EV, Obama 237 EV

Iowa (IA – 6 EV): all four major newspapers in Iowa—including Des Moines Register—endorsed Romney. Quotes from Des Moines Register for picking Romney over Obama…Which candidate could forge the compromises in Congress…When the question is framed in those terms, Mitt Romney emerges the stronger candidate…Romney has made rebuilding the economy his No. 1 campaign priority — and rightly soThat has been exactly the problem in Washington DC. In 2009-2010, President Obama would work with Pelosi and Reid to get things done to his desire—aka ObamaCare. But the last 2 years, he hasn’t compromised with John Boehner. President Reagan met half-way with Tip O’Neill on many issues and President Clinton had to compromise with Newt Gingrich. President Obama is leading Romney in recent polls by an average of 2% before these endorsements. In the end, Romney will be able to pick up Iowa.

Romney: 273 EV, Obama 237 EV

If Romney can’t pick up IA, then he needs New Hampshire with its offer of 4 EV or  Nevada with 6 EV to get over 270. And, of course, then there is the state of Ohio with its 18 EV.

Ohio (OH – 18 EV): since 1972, Ohio has voted for presidents. At the same time, it should be noted that Ohio’s number of electoral votes has gradually decreased from 25 in 1972, 23 in 1984, 21 in 1992, and 20 in 2004 to only 18 in 2012. May one say Ohio’s importance has decreased? Not really. Obama currently leads Romney by an average of 2.3% in the most recent 11 polls—3 of which showed a tie. In a recent Purple Strategies poll (10/23-25), Obama leads Romney by 2%. In this poll 26% said they already voted—58% for Obama and 32% for Romney. Among those who have not voted, Romney has a lead of 49% to 42%. In the latest poll from Cincinnatti Enquire/Ohio News (10/18-10/23), Romney and Obama are tied up at 49%—last month poll showed Obama with 51% support.

If Romney wins OH, game is over. If Obama wins OH, Romney can still get over 270 EV with one of these three swing states—NH, NV or IA.

This is what my electoral map will look like for 2012 – without the decision for OH. Romney will get at least 277 EV while Obama will get 243 with OH is too close to call.

My prediction for 2012

My prediction for 2012

Ch3 Nguyen

Maps were made using http://www.anamericanvision.com/maps/electoral/electoral.php

10/28 notes: just when I am content with MN being a blue state, latest poll from StarTribune/Mason-Dixon (10/23-10/25) showed Obama leading Romney by only 3% – less than the margin error of 3.5%. Again, 7% are still undecided. May I dare to think MN is now a toss-up state?  10 EV is at stake. No wonder there was a report from ABC on 10/26 that both Obama and Romney has bought more ad time in MN.

10/30: Obama’s lead in Oregon was cut down to 6% based on a latest poll from The Oregonian — 47% to 41%. Again, 8% are still undecided. Is its 7 EV up for grabs?

10/31: the latest Detroit News poll (10/27-10/29) showed Obama’s lead in Michigan was cut to 3% – less than the margin error of 4%.  With 3.8% undecided, Obama had 47.7% support to 45% for Romney. Three weeks earlier, Obama led by 7% in the same poll. In 2008, Obama won Michigan and its 16 EV by 17%.

11/4: the lastest Baydoun/Foster poll (11/2-11/2) showed Romney in front of Obama by 1% in Michigan with 2% are still undecided. Can Romney pull out a victory in Michigan? A week earlier, the two were tied in the same poll with 4% undecided.

11/4: the latest Columbus Dispatch poll (11/2) showed Obama’s lead on Romney in Ohio  has been cut to 2% – well within the 2.2% error margin of the poll.

11/4: the latest Tribune poll showed Obama and Romney are tied at 47% each. PA’s unemployment rate is now at 8.2%, higher than the national rate of 7.9%. PA has no business of being a toss-up state. It should be blue and now it represents a good opportunity for Romney to steal 20 EV from Obama. 

11/07/2012: In the end, American voters selected President Obama for his 2nd term. Gov Romney could not carry OH, VA, NH — with FL was still to close to call at the time of this writing. The popular votes were close: Obama 50%, Romney 48%

Final 2012 Electoral Map without FL

Final 2012 Electoral Map without FL

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2 comments on “The race to 270

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