The safe “Blue” (Democrat) States
These states will be wins for Obama—for a total of 201 electoral votes:
Ohio (OH—18 electoral votes): Obama won the 2008 election by a margin of 4.6% (51.5% – 46.9%). A recent Columbus Dispatch poll released on 8/25 had Obama and Romney in a tie. However, a more recent Gravis Marketing poll had Obama leading by 1% on 8/27 but Romney taking over the lead by 3% (47%-44%) on 9/2. Another poll, Purple Strategies, had Obama in front by 3% (on 7/13) but Romney leading by 2% on 8/14. This state will be the real battle ground. Ohio—governed by Republican John Kasich—is one of the swing states that has lower than the national average unemployment rate, 7.2%.
In another recent “Ohio Poll”, on 8/23, 51% believed economic was the most important election issue—and 30% believe jobs/unemployment was the most important issue. More likely voters believed Romney will do a better job on economy and government spending. Why is this important? Romney-Ryan will need to swing the election debate back to economy and job creation. They need to show why jobs creation must come from private sectors, tax reductions and not from government spending. This state is too close to call. It can really swing either way—i.e. you can toss a coin, call head for Romney-Ryan, and see the result.
Pennsylvania (PA—20 electoral votes): In 2008, Obama won this state by a margin of 10%. Recent polls in August showed Obama leading Romney by a margin between 5% – 9%. Pennsylvania’s current unemployment rate is 7.9%—just a little lower than the national rate.
In 2010, Republicans scored a big win with the election of Senator Pat Toomey to take back the Senate seat from Arlen Specter – whose conversion to Democrat, in 2009, provided Obama the decisive vote in the Senate until Scott Brown’s arrival in the Senate.
And then there are two factors that may work against Obama-Biden: free contraceptives and gay marriage. Free contraceptive clause in ObamaCare is often viewed as anti-freedom-of-religion. Based on Pennsylvania’s 2008 voting statistics, 80% of the voters identified themselves as Catholic, Protestant or Christian. About half of this group (i.e. 40% of the voters) voted for Obama. This group, however, would tend to be against gay marriage and free contraceptive clause in ObamaCare. Romney-Ryan will need a little more than a quarter of this group who voted for Obama-Biden in 2008 to change their mind.
At this point, Obama-Biden has a small chance to win PA. Give 20 for Obama-Biden. (221)
Colorado (CO—9 electoral votes): A PPD poll (8/5) showed Obama leading by 6% while the same poll on 9/2 had his lead reduced to 3%. And 49% disapproved the job performed by Obama while 48% approved. In 2008, Obama won this state by almost 9%. This year, the race will be much closer. In 2008, Obama won over 54% of the independent voters—a group that consists of 39% total voters. And he won 61% of Hispanic/Latino voters—a group that consists of 13% total voters. He will campaign hard for these 2 groups again. What may work against Obama is 8.3% unemployment rate in CO, up from 7.8% in Jan’2012. In the end, he will escape with a small margin victory in CO. Give 9 for Obama-Biden. (230)
Nevada (NV—6 electoral votes): In 2008, Obama won this state by 13%. This state has 15% of total voters are Hispanic/Latino and 10% African-Americans—Obama won a huge majority of both groups. However, Nevada’s unemployment rate is a hefty 12%, highest in the nation. The housing market in Nevada also collapsed hard and has not recovered.
In a recent PPD poll—showing Obama-Biden leading Romney-Ryan by 3%, a drop from 6% lead a month earlier—49% disapproved Obama’s job performance while 48% approved it. Mormons make up about 7% of Nevada’s population. Is it too small to make a difference for Romney?
This state is important, especially for Romney-Ryan if they can’t carry Wisconsin. Obama-Biden also needs this state. In the end, Obama-Biden may edge Romney-Ryan for a win. Give 6 for Obama-Biden. (236)
Iowa (IA—6 electoral votes): A recent PPD poll (8/26) showed Obama-Biden’s lead was cut to just 2% from 5% in July. 50% disapproved Obama’s job performance while 45% approved it. On the other hand, a Rasmussen Reports poll (8/8) showed Romney in front by 2%. In 2008, Obama won this state by 9%. A third (33%) of the voters identified themselves as Independents with Obama winning this group 56%. This is the group that both teams will go after. Obama-Biden needs to keep Iowa as W in their side to keep the race close. In the end, they may get 6 here. (242)
New Hampshire (NH—4 electoral votes): most polls recently showed Obama-Biden in front between 3%-6%. There is little chance that Romney-Ryan can get a win here. Give 4 to Obama-Biden. (246)
In the end, Obama will be a one-term president.
Economy and Jobs should be the most important issue of this election
The national unemployment rate is 8.3%.
Several key swing states currently have high unemployment rates:
—Nevada’s unemployment rate in July was 12.0%, up from 11.6%.
—North Carolina’s unemployment rate in July was 9.6%, up from 9.4%.
—Michigan’s unemployment rate in July was 9.0%, up from 8.6%.
—Florida’s unemployment rate in July was 8.8%, up from 8.6%.
—Colorado’s unemployment rate in July was 8.3%, up from 8.2%.
Romney-Ryan will need to get back into economy and jobs plan discussion—leave the nonsense discussions to Obama-Biden on such topics as contraceptives, tax releases, bank accounts, etc.
Bill Clinton and Obama will try to convince people that the economy Obama inherited was so poor that it would take longer to recover. This is of course after Bill Clinton spoke from the other side of his mouth in 2010 while delivering a campaign speech for the Democrats… “The Democrats are saying something like this: ‘We found a big hole that we did not dig. We didn’t get it filled in 21 months, but at least we quit digging,'” Clinton said at the time. “‘Give us two more years. If it doesn’t work, vote us out.'”
Time has run out for Obama!
The latest unemployment report on 9/7 showed the economy added just 96,000 jobs in August—well below the expected 125,000 by economists while revisions for June and July showing 41,000 fewer jobs than reported. Expect this 96.000 to be “revised” down as the administration plays with the number. While the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% from 8.3%, it was because many Americans have given up on searching for jobs.
We, Americans, have not given up hope for this country. Vote right in November!