A Michigan Surprise After A Wisconsin Surprise!

1)     Bill Clinton’s comments

 To many Democrats, Bill Clinton is like Ronald Reagan to Republicans.

 When Bill Clinton praised Romney’s “sterling” career at Bain and refused to go along with Obama’s camp to attack private equity companies—saying attacks on Bain are not smart—he was really thinking about the future. The future is 2016 when Hillary Clinton will make a run for the White House— probably against first-term President Mitt Romney. And when that happens, the Clintons will again need big contributions from Wall Street, including Bain and other private equity companies.

 When he commented that Bush tax cuts should be extended he simply meant to say that during a “recession”, taxes should not be raised—and most economists will agree with this. And he also did say…the country is still in “recession”—as in the “Obama recovery” that experts and Obama bragged about…has not happened yet.

2)     Romney raised more money than Obama in May

After Scott Walker won the recall election in WI, the left wing media was quick to point out the he out-spent his opponent, Mayor Barrett, by 7-to-1 ratio.

Today, they followed with the reports showing Romney and the Republican Party out-raised Obama by a large margin of $16.8 million—$76.8 versus $60—despite that famous $15-million-night with Clooney.

(If I remembered it right…there were not much complains in 2008 when Obama out-raised (and out-spent) McCain by almost $400 million–$750 versus $370.)

But as if people would worry much about Obama’s campaign fund or his chance of reelection, the media was also quick to point out that Kerry out-raised Bush in May of 2004 too.

3)     Is Michigan in play?

After WI recall election showed that Romney may have a chance to win the state if he delivers the right message (click here for details). Today, in a recent poll by EPIC-MRA, Romney is leading Obama by a margin of 46%-45%. Same poll in April showed Obama leading 47%-43%.

While many may be surprised by this poll today, back in a blog in May (click here to read), I mentioned about an April Gallup poll that showed Romney leading Obama by 47%-45% in Michigan.

Romney needs to continue to deliver the messages on economy, job and tax policies.

The advantage for an incumbent president is that he can run on his record—i.e. from January 2009 until now—and if things are going well for the country, why would voters want to change the course.

Obama

On the other hand, the incumbent will have the disadvantage because his opponent can run on his “poor” record and Romney has been doing just that.

And all Obama has been able to do are:

—bringing up the past of Romney with Bain and the state of MA: not working since voters are not interested much about the past when the country currently has lots of problems

—blaming the Republicans for not passing his jobs plan (click here for details): but he fails to understand that most voters will ask why did he work on jobs plan during his first 2 years (2009-2010) with control of both houses of Congress.

Ch3 Nguyen

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