Delegate Math: Can Santorum Get 1144?

According to realclearpolitics.com, Rick Santorum has currently won 246 delegates.

Can he get the needed 1144 delegates to win the GOP nomination?

In order to do so, he will need 898 more.

First, let’s look at the winner-take-all primaries that he can’t win the majority of the votes to get all of their delegates because these are Romney’s sure wins:

  • April 24: Delaware: 17 delegates—Romney will do well here, enough to get the majority of the votes
  • June 5: New Jersey: 50 delegates—two factors: Chris Christie and NJ Republicans are moderate
  • June 5: California: 172 delegates—this is also a almost a sure win for Mitt as Californians will not go for Santorum or Gingrich, and they will realize that Paul has no real chance to win now
  • June 26: Utah: 40 delegates—this is a Mormon state, so it’s a sure win for Mitt

The rest of the states, excluding Washington DC where Santorum is not listed on the ballot, only have a total of 917 delegates.

Santorum would need to win 898 of 917 delegates—almost impossible.

Why is Santorum still in the race? His camp said that Santorum is hoping to prevent Romney from getting 1144 before Tampa—although he has little chance to do so. He is hoping that the convention will be brokered and he would be able to fight and wins on second balloting.

There is also a possibility that Santorum is playing for 2016 by finishing a stronger second place now.

Regardless of what his motives may be, Santorum is spoiling Republican’s chance of defeating Obama by staying in the race—wasting lots of Romney’s money, resources now instead of spending in November and the risk of further dividing the party.

Obama would pray for Santorum to continue.

I think Santorum should drop out.

It’s time the Republicans unite and concentrate on Obama who has no good records to run on as an incumbent.

Voters in Louisiana, Wisconsin, Maryland and Washington DC are next with a chance to show the door to Santorum.

Ch3 Nguyen

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