Delegate Math: How Mitt Romney Can Get To 1144

(Updated 4/6/2012)

According to RealClearPolitics.com, Mitt Romney has currently won 655 delegates as of 4/4/2012—more than half of the needed 1144 delegates to win the GOP nomination—after big victories in WI, MD and Washington DC.

What states does he need to win to get at least another 489 delegates to get the magic number of 1144?

First, let’s look at the winner-take-all primaries that he can win the majority of the votes to get all of their delegates:

  • April 24: Delaware: 17 delegates—Romney will do well here, enough to get the majority of the votes
  • June 5: New Jersey: 50 delegates—two factors: Chris Christie and NJ Republicans are moderate
  • June 5: California: 172 delegates—this is almost a sure win for Mitt as Californians will not go for Santorum or Gingrich, and they will realize that Paul has no real chance to win now
  • June 26: Utah: 40 delegates—this is a Mormon state, so it’s a sure win for Mitt

These four states will give Romney at least 255 out of 279 delegates, reducing his magic number to 234 from the rest of the states that are mostly proportional primaries or direct elections:

  • 4/24: New York: 95 delegates—proportional primary, Romney currently leads the poll by 33 points according to the latest Quinnipiac poll (3/28 – 4/2)
  • 4/24: Pennsylvania: 72 delegates—Santorum’s playground, and it’s a direct election, but latest polls show Romney may do very well here. If Romney can split PA with Santorum, there will be no reason for Santorum to stay in the race
  • 4/24: Connecticut: 28 delegates—hybrid primary but Romney will expect to win this state
  • 4/24: Rhode Island: 19 delegates—NY, CT, DE and RI are expected to be Romney’s wins on what could be night that Santorum would announce his exit from the GOP race
  • 5/8: North Carolina: 55 delegates— proportional primary and Romney is leading by 6 points in latest poll released 3/29, but this will be a key state for Santorum if he decides to remain in the race after 4/24
  • 5/8: Indiana: 46 delegates—hybrid primary/caucus
  • 5/8: West Virginia: 31 delegates— direct election
  • 5/15: Nebraska: 35 delegates—non-binding primary
  • 5/15: Oregon: 28 delegates— proportional primary and moderate Republicans will deliver a win for Romney here
  • 5/22: Kentucky: 45 delegates— proportional primary
  • 5/22: Arkansas: 36 delegates— proportional primary, not easy
  • 5/29: Texas: 155 delegates—proportional primary, the latest WPA poll showing Santorum leading by 8 points but the latest Rasmussen poll showing Romney ahead by 2. If Santorum remains in the race past 4/24, TX will be a must win for him
  • 6/5: South Dakota: 28 delegates— proportional primary, not easy
  • 6/5: Montana: 26 delegates—non-binding primary but Romney probably will win this state
  • 6/5: New Mexico: 23 delegates— proportional primary, not easy

As Santorum stubbornly stays in the race, the next big night for Romney will be 4/24 when 214 delegates are up for grabs—in addition to winner-take-all DE. The key state is PA. If Romney does well there, Santorum should leave the race.

There are 722 delegates from the above states. Romney needs to win just 32.5% of 722 to get 234 delegates—not a difficult task for Romney.

Mitt Romney has the math on his side. No other candidate can get the 1144 delegates needed going into Tampa GOP convention. No one can prevent Romney from getting 1144 neither.

Republicans should realize that a brokered convention is the last thing the GOP needs right now and that Romney has the best chance to defeat Obama.

If Mitt Romney is the GOP candidate, this election will be about economy, jobs and the direction that this country is heading—as it should be. And Obama will not have any records to run on.

The moment that Santorum becomes the GOP candidate, this election will be about contraception, abortion, and other social issues—exactly what Obama would want. This scenario is Obama’s best chance to win re-election.

Can we afford another 4 years of Obama’s policies?

Your vote will decide the fate of the country!

 Ch3 Nguyen

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