Electoral Vote Math: Romney’s Path To 270

The safe “Red” (Republican) States

These states will be wins for Romney—for a total of 181 electoral votes:

2012 GOP Safe Red States

2012 GOP Safe Red States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Swing States

Missouri (MO—10 electoral votes): In 2008, Senator McCain won this state by a mere 3903 votes. However, a recent St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll showed Romney still led Obama 50%-43% even with Obama-Biden’s efforts to pin Atkin’s legitimate rape comments on Romney-Ryan and the GOP. What is Romney’s opinion on the abortion due to rape? “I am pro-life. I believe that abortion is the wrong choice except in cases of incest, rape, and to save the life of the mother.”—Romney was quoted by Boston Globe in 2005. Romney-Ryan also led Obama-Biden by a margin of 54%-39% in the 50-64 age group, and 53%-40% in the 65+ group. Obama-Biden has failed to scare seniors with Ryan’s Medicare plan. In the end, Romney-Ryan will win this state—add 10 electoral votes for Romney-Ryan team (191).

Virginia (13 electoral votes): A recent Purple Strategies poll had Virginia swinging to Romney-Ryan’s direction—48%-45%. A month ago, Obama-Biden led Romney 46%-44%. With 38% of the voters are in the 45-64 age group while 11% in the 65+ group, Obama-Biden has again failed in fooling seniors with Ryan’s plan to reform Medicare. The poll also showed 47% believed Romney-Ryan would bring real change to Washington DC while only 40% still believing in Obama-Biden’s delivery of “Change”. And, 47% believe Romney-Ryan has better economy plan than Obama-Biden (40%). Romney-Ryan will need to steer this election back to economy. November will bring a close victory in VA—add 13 electoral votes for Romney-Ryan (204).

North Carolina (NC—15 electoral votes): It’s not a stretch to say Romney-Ryan will need this state in November—Obama won this state by just 14,177 votes (0.33%). A most recent state by CNN showed Romney-Ryan leading Obama-Biden by a mere 48%-47%. This race will be close. Over 55% of the voters in this state are older than 45. It will be important for Romney-Ryan to make their case for Medicare reform. On 5/9 election, there were 1,318,486 votes for Yes (61%) on the marriage amendment while 832,618 (39%) votes for No. There were 966,901 total votes in the Republican Presidential primary for the state. If we assume all Republicans voted ‘Yes’ on the marriage amendment, then about 351,585 Democrats voted ‘Yes’ on the amendment. How much of these 351,585 votes—16.3% of total voters—will Obama lose in November? Will his evolution cost him 15 electoral votes? Add 15 for Romney-Ryan (219).

With the wins in MO, NC, and VA, Romney-Ryan will need another 51 electoral votes to win the election. Can he win enough from Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4)?

Wisconsin (WI—10 electoral votes): What a difference can month make in a presidential election? A Marquette University poll in early July had Obama in front of Romney by 8% (51%-43%). A recent poll from CBS/New York Time—two left wing media—showed Obama-Biden leading by only 2%. Romney-Ryan now only trail 47%-49%.  On economy, 49% believed in Romney-Ryan team while 43% still believing in Obama-Biden. And 44% were favorable toward Ryan while 35% favoring Biden as Vice-President. Paul Ryan has been an important factor to swing Wisconsin closer to Romney. However, with economy still being the most important issue (by 54%), Romney-Ryan team needed to swing the discussion back to how they can change this going-no-where economy. Ryan will campaign hard. Governor Walker may make a difference in this state also. Add 10 for Romney-Ryan (229).

Michigan (MI—16 electoral votes): has not gone “Red” in presidential election since 1988. Michigan has no business of being a swing state (period). However, this year’s race is much closer than Obama’s 16% margin victory in 2008. A recent FMW poll actually showed Romney-Ryan leading Obama-Biden by a 4% margin, 48%-44%. The poll also showed 48% supported Ryan’s federal budget plan—including major changes in Medicare and Social Security—while 45% opposing it. An article from Forbes (8/15/2012) showed that General Motors (GM) heading into bankruptcy again—so much for Obama touting that he saved GM and Detroit with billions of bailout money from tax payers. The government already lost over $16 billion in GM stocks. GM and Michigan need a solid leadership in Washington DC for help not bailout money. Michigan’s unemployment rate in July was 9.0%, up from 8.6%. The state will turn to its native son in November. Add 16 for Romney-Ryan in what could be the upset win of 2012 (245).

Florida (FL—29 electoral votes): There is no possible way for Romney to win this election without winning Florida—unless it’s a landslide nationwide. An early August Rasmussen poll showed Romney-Ryan in front of Obama-Biden 45%-43%, relatively unchanged from last month. On the other hand in a late August CNN poll, Obama led 50%-46%. In this CNN poll, Romney-Ryan won the over-50 age group, 49%-47%. This is significant since the Sunshine state has 22% of the voters 65+ age group and 37% are in the 45-64 group—based on 2008 election data. Obama-Biden has failed in smearing Ryan’s Medicare plan. To win Florida, Romney-Ryan will need to show how their economy will be good for the country and Florida. This will be a tight race. In the end, add 29 for Romney-Ryan (274).

 

2012 Romney-Ryan's States

2012 Romney-Ryan’s States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other swing states currently in tight races are: Iowa (6 electoral votes), New Hampshire (4), Colorado (9), Ohio (18), and Nevada (6).

Economy and Jobs should be the most important issue of this election

The national unemployment rate is 8.3%.

Several key swing states currently have high unemployment rates:

—Nevada’s unemployment rate in July was 12.0%, up from 11.6%.

—North Carolina’s unemployment rate in July was 9.6%, up from 9.4%.

—Michigan’s unemployment rate in July was 9.0%, up from 8.6%.

—Florida’s unemployment rate in July was 8.8%, up from 8.6%.

—Colorado’s unemployment rate in July was 8.3%, up from 8.2%.

Romney-Ryan will need to get back into economy and jobs plan discussion—leave the nonsense discussions to Obama-Biden on such topics as contraceptives, tax releases, bank accounts, etc.

Let Obama-Biden talk about how rich Romney is. Romney-Ryan need to talk about how to make America rich again.

Let Obama-Biden ridicule Romney’s success. Romney-Ryan need to talk about how to make America successful again.

 Ch3 Nguyen

7 comments on “Electoral Vote Math: Romney’s Path To 270

  1. Very interesting analysis. Isn’t the electoral college powerful? I think you are right, though I think Romney will also take Fl. and Colo.

      • If he can also take CO, that will be good. Obama won this state by 9% in 2008. Key is independent voters. 39% of voters are independent and 54% of this group (ie 21% of total number of voters) voted for Obama.

  2. Romney is looking good in Iowa at this stage of the race and Ohio will come around before election day.

    • Iowa is another state that Obama won by 9% in 2008. Similarly, independent voters are the key. 33% of voters are independent and 56% (ie 18%) voted for Obama.

  3. America is richer than ever before. America also has higher levels of inequality than ever before. Rommey-Ryan talk quite a bit about cut taxes and cutting government spending, but they don’t get into specifics. Where they do mention specifics, they often want to increase the amount spend by government, not reduce it. If you are rich, Rommey is the president for you. If you are part of the 99%, then Obama’s policies would benefit you more personally.

    • Romney-Ryan want to lower business tax to 25%.
      They want to cut 20% across the board for individual tax rates.
      All in mittromney.com.
      I am in 99% but I don’t see why $1 trillion a year in debt is good
      for me. I don’t see why Obama is good for the 99% — he wants
      people to believe that. But that is not true.
      If you are unemployed or underemployed, Obama is not good
      for you.
      If you are employed, Obama is not good for business –> not
      good for you.
      Bottom line: Obama is not good for the country.
      He is a nice person — but niceness will not lead this country
      to prosperity.

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